‘Eddington’: Instant Oscar predictions for Ari Aster’s latest

LeslieEntertainment2025-07-198200

Over the course of only four feature films, writer-director Ari Aster has quickly gained a reputation as one of the most daring filmmakers working today. And with his latest, Eddington, opening in theaters, Aster has set his sights on our very recent past to expand what the hell happened to all of us during COVID.

But for as big of a splash as Aster has made since Hereditary, his films have yet to earn a single Oscar nomination. Could that change as he continues his shift away from arthouse horror and further into the world of social satire?

Original Screenplay

If any branch is geared toward rewarding Aster's massive creative swings, it's the writers, and the early predictions data supports that premise. Eddington's highest ranking category in Gold Derby's Oscar nominations predictions so far is easily Best Original Screenplay (in 13th place), and it makes sense.

Eddington is playing with genre and speaking to the moment in a way that may not correlate with a high Cinemascore, but could engender admiration from Academy members in the writers branch. Aster is managing to make risky and creative films, and those efforts are often the ones awarded in the Screenplay categories.

Oscars Nominations 2026

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Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay

Contender

Odds

Sinners 200

Sinners

91.3%

Sentimental Value

87.8%

Noah Baumbach

Jay Kelly

79.5%

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Marty Supreme

64.0%

It Was Just an Accident

59.8%

Luca Guadagnino

After the Hunt

39.0%

Hikari

Rental Family

9.7%

Materialists 200AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_22ssadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_42ssadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

Materialists

5.2%

Black Bag 200

Black Bag

3.6%

The Secret Agent

3.0%

10.

James L. Brooks

Ella McCay

2.8%

11.

EddingtonAdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_23usadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_43usadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

Eddington

2.5%

12.

A House of Dynamite

2.5%

13.

The Smashing Machine

1.7%

14.

F1: The Movie 200

F1: The Movie

1.7%

15.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick YouAdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_250sadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_450sadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

1.5%

16.

Blue Moon

1.0%

17.

Ronan Day-Lewis

Anemone

0.9%

18.

Jim Jarmusch

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother

0.9%

19.

The Phoenician Scheme 200AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_262sadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_462sadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

The Phoenician Scheme

0.8%

20.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

0.8%

21.

Twinless

0.6%

22.

In Your Dreams

0.4%

23.

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The Mastermind

0.3%

24.

Roofman

0.3%

25.

Eleanor the Great

See All Predictions

Supporting Actress

This one can be summed up in two words: Emma. Stone. And after two Best Actress Oscars, her mere presence inserts a movie into the awards conversation. The performance is a typically strong one from Stone, in a role that has her playing in the wilder end of modern human behavior.

Stone is currently sitting at 17th in Gold Derby prediction ranking, but that could quickly change as Eddington rolls out, depending on how word of mouth spreads. It's certain to be a polarizing film, but support could coalesce around a presence as well known and liked as Stone's.

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Oscars Nominations 2026

Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay

Contender

Odds

Elle Fanning

81.0%

Ariana Grande

80.4%

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

43.9%

ayo edebiri

Ayo Edebiri

42.4%

Teyana Taylor

42.0%

Wunmi Mosaku

36.1%

Gwyneth Paltrow

35.1%

Laura Dern

30.4%

Jennifer Lopez

22.0%

Glenn Close

10.4%

10.

Mari Yamamoto

5.0%

11.

Hailee Steinfeld

4.7%

12.

Regina Hall

4.1%

13.

Tilda Swinton

3.8%

14.

Emily Watson

1.9%

15.

Mia Goth

1.9%

16.

Emma Stone

1.7%

17.

Kerry Condon

1.2%

18.

Rebecca Ferguson

1.1%

19.

Jamie Lee Curtis

1.0%

20.

Felicity Jones

1.0%

21.

Karen Gillan

0.9%

22.

Alicia Silverstone

0.8%

23.

Greta Lee

0.7%

24.

Emily Mortimer

0.7%

25.

Margaret Qualley

0.7%

26.

Chase Infiniti

0.6%

27.

Nina Hoss

0.5%

28.

Sissy Spacek

0.5%

29.

Zoey Deutch

0.5%

30.

Chloe Sevigny

0.4%

31.

phoebe-waller-bridge

Phoebe Waller-Bridge

0.4%

32.

Kirsten Dunst

0.3%

33.

Gaby Hoffmann

0.3%

34.

Samantha Morton

0.3%

35.

Regina King

0.2%

36.

Lauren Graham

0.2%

37.

kate-mckinnon

Kate McKinnon

0.2%

38.

Gemma Chan

0.2%

39.

kerry washington

Kerry Washington

0.1%

40.

Ilfenesh Hadera

0.1%

41.

Allison Janney

0.1%

42.

Alana Haim

0.1%

43.

Imogen Poots

0.1%

44.

Radhika Apte

0.1%

45.

Zoe Kravitz

0.1%

46.

Safia Oakley-Green

47.

Kerry Condon

48.

Vicky Krieps

49.

Juno Temple

50.

Erin Kellyman

51.

Jessica Hecht

See All Predictions

Actor

A four-time nominee and one-time winner, Joaquin Phoenix is another actor whose credit will always draw at least some awards curiosity. He has gone without a nom since winning his Best Actor in 2020 for Joker, and at this early stage of the conversation, Eddington doesn't appear to be the most likely film to get him his next.

Phoenix sits at a distant 30th in the Best Actor rankings, mostly based on reads of the trailer and the film's premiere at Cannes, so like Stone, his awards future will depend on Eddington's reception and whether it can capture the conversation.

Oscars Nominations 2026

Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay

Contender

Odds

Jeremy Allen White

81.4%

Timothee Chalamet

77.2%

Michael B. Jordan

66.4%

George Clooney

48.7%

Leonardo DiCaprio

48.1%

jesse plemons

Jesse Plemons

41.4%

Wagner Moura

20.9%

Colin Farrell

15.2%

Dwayne Johnson

13.9%

Paul Mescal

10.6%

10.

Brendan Fraser

10.5%

11.

Daniel Day-Lewis

5.4%

12.

Oscar Isaac

4.9%

13.

Denzel Washington

4.1%

14.

Tom Hiddleston

2.4%

15.

Josh O'Connor

1.1%

16.

Joel Edgerton

1.1%

17.

Brad Pitt

1.0%

18.

Tonatiuh

0.8%

19.

Chris Evans

0.8%

20.

Ethan Hawke

0.8%

21.

Idris Elba

0.8%

22.

dylan o'brien pmc sq

Dylan O'Brien

0.7%

23.

hugh-jackman

Hugh Jackman

0.7%

24.

Colin Farrell

0.7%

25.

Benicio del Toro

Benicio Del Toro

0.6%

26.

Paul Mescal

0.5%

27.

Rami Malek

0.5%

28.

Austin Butler

0.4%

29.

Michael Fassbender

0.4%

30.

Joaquin Phoenix

0.4%

31.

Channing Tatum

0.4%

32.

Benedict Cumberbatch

0.3%

33.

Daniel Craig

0.3%

34.

Vahid Mobasseri

0.1%

35.

Guillaume Marbeck

0.1%

36.

Sky Yang

0.1%

37.

Andre Holland

See All Predictions

Supporting Actor

Who doesn't love Pedro Pascal? We actually have an answer to that: Nobody. The man is a certified star on the big and small screen and a four-time Emmy nominee. Some awards body somewhere is going to give this man a major trophy.

Though, it doesn't seem like it will be for Eddington. Gold Derby users predicting Best Supporting Actor have Pascal in Eddington 27th place — notably ten spots behind Pascal in The Materialist.

Oscars Nominations 2026

Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay

Contender

Odds

Stellan Skarsgard

84.9%

Jeremy Strong

70.0%

Adam Sandler

66.2%

Delroy Lindo

59.8%

Sean Penn

50.6%

Andrew Garfield

45.7%

Mark Hamill

14.2%

Miles Caton

14.2%

Stephen Graham

8.4%

Jonathan Bailey

8.4%

10.

Diego Luna

5.9%

11.

Akira Emoto

4.8%

12.

Jack O'Connell

4.4%

13.

Jacob Elordi

3.8%

14.

Andrew Scott

2.6%

15.

Robert Pattinson

2.3%

16.

Pedro Pascal

2.0%

17.

Takehiro Hira

1.7%

18.

Benicio del Toro

Benicio Del Toro

1.7%

19.

Josh O'Connor

1.2%

20.

Damson Idris

1.1%

21.

Christoph Waltz

1.0%

22.

Michael Shannon

0.8%

23.

Josh O'Connor

0.8%

24.

Russell Crowe

0.6%

25.

Pedro Pascal

0.6%

26.

William H. Macy

0.6%

27.

Stavros Halkias

0.6%

28.

Javier Bardem

0.5%

29.

Billy Crudup

0.5%

30.

Benjamin Pajak

0.4%

31.

ASAP Rocky

0.4%

32.

Michael Stuhlbarg

0.3%

33.

Adam Driver

0.3%

34.

Peter Dinklage

0.2%

35.

Woody Harrelson

0.2%

36.

Matt Smith

0.2%

37.

Andrew Scott

0.2%

38.

Austin Butler

0.2%

39.

Andy Samberg

0.2%

40.

Gabriel Basso

0.2%

41.

Tracy Letts

0.2%

42.

Tom Bateman

0.1%

43.

Chiwetel Ejiofor

0.1%

44.

Sean Bean

0.1%

45.

Kevin Kline

0.1%

46.

James Sweeney

0.1%

47.

Ebrahim Azizi

0.1%

48.

Richard E Grant

Richard E. Grant

0.1%

49.

Chiwetel Ejiofor

50.

LaKeith Stanfield

51.

Samuel Bottomley

52.

Aubry Dullin

53.

Liev Schreiber

54.

Josh Brolin

55.

Nick Nolte

56.

LaKeith Stanfield

See All Predictions

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