Analyst revises Carvana stock price target ahead of earnings

Analyst revises Carvana stock price target ahead of earnings originally appeared on TheStreet.

Hey, Jon Hamm, what are you up to?

The veteran actor, who memorably portrayed Don Draper in "Mad Men" and is currently starring in "Your Friends and Neighbors" was caught off guard by a jogging neighbor in a TV ad for Carvana  (CVNA) .

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The ad, entitled "Excuses", rolled out last month and is the first of two commercial spots featuring Hamm

In the 30-second spot, we see the actor trying to avoid attending a birthday party for his neighbor's dog by claiming his has to sell his car.

The only problem, the ad tells us, is that the online used car retailer makes the process so fast and simple that Hamm's excuse unravels, especially since his car is already sold and loaded onto a Carvana hauler just a few feet away.

So now he can go to the party, right?

"I just sold my car," the actor replies. "What--are we going to walk?"

Carvana's shares aren't walking; they're taking off at warp speed. The Tempe, Arizona-based company's stock has climbed 68% in 2025 and shares have soared 167% from a year ago.

Carvana is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 30.shutterstock

Carvana CEO cites need for taking risks

But it wasn't always that way.

Carvana's stock tumbled 99% in 2022 as the company laid off staff. Morgan Stanley pulled its rating and price target on Carvana.

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New Constructs labeled Carvana a “zombie company” and, after a much-heralded turnaround, short-selling firm Hindenburg Research declared Carvana's rebound "a mirage."

"I think most companies that take a big swing generally have multiple near death experiences," Ernest Garcia III, CEO and co-founder of Carvana, said in April during an episode of the 20VC with Harry Stebbins podcast. "There are no stories of companies that make it with no volatility."

"There are no stories of companies where people just cheer the whole time and it's like a standing slow clap that never ends," he added. "That's just not how it goes."

Carvana went public in 2017 and when that happens, Garcia said, "it's just cold, it's ruthless, it's just results."

"You have more moves than you think," he said. "When you find yourself with your back against the wall, you can find action that you might not have found otherwise. It makes risk a little less risky because when you find yourself in that spot, if you have problem solvers around. you can usually do more than people imagine."

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This could involve fundraising or finding a way to make dollars go further, or looking for ways to more efficient.

"The lesson that I feel like I learned is you need to take risk to do something meaningful," Garcia said, "and I think risk is less risky than most people believe it is."

Famed short-seller Jim Chanos had some harsh things to say about Carvana during 2025 Forbes Iconoclast Summit last month.

Analyst says Carvana can grow further

“Carvana is a misunderstood story," he said. "The Street believes it is an epic turnaround, but in fact, the company is still losing money. Although it is priced as a growth stock, the business is cyclical.”

He said the company’s gross margins are a product of aggressive accounting that inflates both unit economics and corporate profitability while excluding many components that other auto dealers typically include.

Related: Analyst reboots Carvana stock price target on pullback

“Carvana is making all this money in finance, not selling cars,” Chanos said. “They are a subprime lender.

Carvana is scheduled to report second quarter earnings on July 30.

Citizens JMP raised the firm's price target on Carvana to $440 from $275 on July 2 and kept an outperform rating on the shares after assuming coverage of the name, according to The Fly.

The firm said that Carvana created a consumer experience with an net promoter score of 69 by combining proprietary software to enable transparent selection of tens of thousands of vehicles, a nationwide logistics network, and a reconditioning service that enables it to price below brick and mortar dealers.

Citizens JMP said that it believes Carvana can further grow while pushing toward its medium-term EBITDA margin target of 13.5%.

On June 13 JPMorgan said that Carvana shares were "due for a pause" after materially outperforming peers year-to-date.

The firm reduced estimates for the second quarter, saying recent prime deal disclosures suggest a slightly larger than expected gain on sale margin compression quarter-over-quarter.

JPMorgan believes the second quarter could be the first time in several quarters that Carvana's EBITDA results are likely to miss expectations. The analyst kept an overweight rating on the shares with a $325 price target.

Related: Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy

Analyst revises Carvana stock price target ahead of earnings first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 2, 2025

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 2, 2025, where it first appeared.