NWS Climate Prediction Center: Potential for tropical development in Gulf in mid-July
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has released its latest long-range tropical forecast, which has flagged an area for potential for tropical activity mid-July in the Gulf.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is at least a 20% chance of tropical development in the northern Gulf, close to the southern U.S. Coast, between July 16-22, 2025. While this is not an official area of interest or forecast by the National Hurricane Center, the two agencies do work together.
What do we know?
According to the Climate Prediction Center, a tropical low could try and form in the Gulf over the next two weeks due to weak areas of low pressure in the atmosphere and surface convergence, as well as the already warm water temperatures in the Gulf.
The Euro model – one of several computer models used to predict potential weather scenarios and forecasts – hints at the possibility of tropical development. This isn't entirely uncommon during the early parts of hurricane season. Dips in the jet stream that reach into the Gulf or southwestern parts of the Atlantic Ocean can help spur tropical development, such as what happened with Tropical Storm Chantal last week, according to FOX 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren.
Could it impact Florida?
It's too early at this point. It's unknown if this potential tropical low will even form. It might not. The FOX 35 Storm Team will continue to monitor all updates on the tropics. Regardless, the water temperatures in the Gulf are extremely warm for the season.
The temperatures being recorded in July are usually what is seen later in the season – around mid-September. Several factors help fuel potential tropical activity. The tropical name on the 2025 Atlantic Storm Name list is Dexter.
Why does the Climate Prediction Center issue long future outlooks?
The Climate Prediction Center issues several types of long-range (future) weather outlooks, including months-long outlooks (up to 13 months in the future), as well as seasonal outlooks, 6-10 day outlooks, and 8-14 day outlooks.
