‘The Pitt,’ ‘The Studio,’ and ‘Adolescence’ have taken the lead in this pivotal Emmy category

When it comes to predicting the Emmys, there is one group of bellwether categories worth paying close attention to. Over the past decade, a notable trend has emerged: the winners for Best Drama Series and Best Drama Casting have mirrored each other seven times; Best Comedy Series and Best Comedy Casting eight times; and Best Limited Series and Best Limited/Movie Casting nine times. That's a combined accuracy rate of 80 percent over the most recent 10-year period.

With that in mind, our gaze is fixed on the three casting races for the 2025 Emmys, where The Pitt, The Studio, and Adolescence are already making compelling cases as the early front-runners.

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Best Drama Casting

Drama Casting

Contender

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Odds

0.

The Pitt

The Pitt

69.2%

1.

The White Lotus

The White Lotus

21.4%

2.

Severance

Severance

6.0%

3.

The Last of UsAdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_9gsadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_hgsadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

The Last of Us

3.4%

4.

Slow Horses

Slow Horses

--

The Pitt ranking in first place for casting should raise a few eyebrows, considering that Severance is the front-runner to win Best Drama Series and also tripled The Pitt's tally in terms of acting nominations. Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa, and Shawn Hatosy were the only performer nominees for Season 1 of the medical series. But there's precedent: Homeland received one fewer acting nomination in 2012, and it still was able to win Emmys for series and casting.

Katherine LaNasa, Tracy Ifeachor, and Noah Wyle in The PittWarrick Page/Max

The category's runner-up is The White Lotus, which notably is a two-time casting winner in 2023 (as a drama series) and 2022 (as a limited series). Unlike the other nominees, The White Lotus revamps its cast every season, which gives it a huge advantage in this contest. Plus, the acting branch went overboard (no Tanya McQuoid pun intended) with their love for Season 3, bestowing nominations upon eight actors: Walton Goggins,Jason Isaacs,Sam Rockwell,Carrie Coon,Parker Posey,Natasha Rothwell,Aimee Lou Wood, andScott Glenn.

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Severance currently places third in casting for its heralded second season, which led the field with 27 total nominations. The series' nine nominated cast members are Adam Scott, Britt Lower, Zach Cherry, Tramell Tillman, John Turturro, Patricia Arquette, Jane Alexander, Gwendoline Christie, and Merritt Wever.

The Last of Us is next for its Season 2, which began with Joel's shocking death and explored the reverberations on those around him. Pedro Pascal, Bella Ramsey, Joe Pantoliano, Jeffrey Wright, Kaitlyn Dever, and Catherine O’Hara were the six individuals recognized by the Television Academy.

Lastly, Slow Horses received a casting citation for Season 4 despite only getting in series lead Gary Oldman. Other would-be contenders, notably Jack Lowden and Jonathan Pryce, were strangely snubbed.

Best Comedy Casting

Comedy Casting

Contender

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Odds

0.

The Studio

The Studio

89.8%

1.

Only Murders in the Building

Only Murders in the Building

4.2%

2.

The Bear

The Bear

3.0%

3.

HacksAdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_bksadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_jksadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

Hacks

1.9%

4.

Shrinking

Shrinking

1.1%

The Studio has taken the early lead in the casting race for comedy, and for good reason — it received 10 acting nominations, more than any other TV program this year. The nominees are Seth Rogen, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, Catherine O'Hara, Bryan Cranston, Dave Franco, Ron Howard, Anthony Mackie, Martin Scorsese, and Zoë Kravitz. The Apple TV+ show is the only first-year comedy nominated, which, if recent history is an indication, gives it an additional upper hand: The Bear (2023), Abbott Elementary (2022), Ted Lasso (2021), and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2018) all won casting for their rookie seasons.

The Studio castApple TV+

Only Murders in the Building currently ranks in second for a fourth season that went heavy on special guest stars, including Zach Galifianakis, Eugene Levy, Eva Longoria, and Melissa McCarthy. But those actors were all snubbed, as were lead performers Steve Martin and Selena Gomez. The one piece of good news? Martin Short scored his fourth consecutive bid for Best Comedy Actor.

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The Bear is the two-time reigning champion in this casting category, and it's hoping to emulate the Veep sweep of 2015-17 by going three-for-three. The cooking dramedy's seven acting nominees for Season 3 are Jeremy Allen White, Ayo Edebiri, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Liza Colón-Zayas, Jon Bernthal, Olivia Colman, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

In fourth place is Hacks, which has yet to win the casting prize, though it did win Best Comedy Series last year in a huge surprise over The Bear. The following four performers nabbed bids for the fourth season: Jean Smart, Hannah Einbinder, Robby Hoffman, and Julianne Nicholson.

Finally, there's Shrinking, which entered the casting race for the first time with its second season. Jason Segel, Harrison Ford, Michael Urie, and Jessica Williams each received acting nominations this year for the underrated comedy about quirky therapists.

Best Movie/Limited Casting

Movie/Limited Casting

Contender

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Odds

0.

Adolescence

Adolescence

90.3%

1.

The Pitt, The Studio, Adolescence lead Emmys casting categories

Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

4.5%

2.

The Penguin

The Penguin

2.6%

3.

Black MirrorAdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_dmsadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe AdvertisementAdvertisement#_R_lmsadkalhb5fiv5vddbH1_ iframe

Black Mirror

1.9%

4.

Dying for Sex

Dying for Sex

0.7%

Can anything beat Adolescence for casting? Bueller? Mere months ago, the five nominated actors — Stephen Graham, Owen Cooper, Ashley Walters, Erin Doherty, and Christine Tremarco — were virtual unknowns, but now they're international superstars due to the success of the Netflix limited series that focuses on a young boy accused of stabbing his female classmate. Their overnight fame is reminiscent of Baby Reindeer last year, and that project walked away with six Emmys including, you guessed it, casting and series.

Owen Cooper and Erin Doherty in AdolescenceNetflix

The other four longform productions are in Adolescence's massive shadow, and are just happy to be nominated for the casting prize. Predicted runner-up Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story secured three acting nominations (Cooper Koch, Javier Bardem, and Chloë Sevigny), while third-place contender The Penguin got three (Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, and Deirdre O'Connell), fourth-place hopeful Black Mirror scored one (Rashida Jones), and fifth-place nominee Dying for Sex earned three (Michelle Williams, Rob Delaney, and Jenny Slate).

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